Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
